Spatially Explicit Scenario Analysis of implementing Indonesia's Forest Moratorium

Environmental and Socioeconomic Tradeoffs for the Kalimantan region

Indicative Forest Moratorium Map

Summary outcome

Total Land Area (103 ha)
Total carbon1 (103 Mg)
Potential financial returns, NPV2 (106 $)
Notes:
  • (1) Includes biomass and peat carbon. [back]
  • (2) Net Present Value of forgone financial returns modeled over a 25-year timeframe. [back]

Table 1: District-level

District-level Environmental and Socioeconomic Implications
Environmental Benefits (protected) Socioeconomic Costs (forgone)
Province District Land Area (ha) Total Carbon1 (Mg) Total NPV2 ($) Unit NPV2 ($/Mg)
Barat Bengkayang 42,250 14,687,152 661,128,482 12.3
Barat Kapuas Hulu 379,176 403,216,167 5,467,025,852 3.7
Barat Ketapang 574,059 386,446,371 8,321,857,821 5.9
Barat Landak 43,205 14,419,479 661,834,775 12.5
Barat Melawi 392,344 106,455,550 6,678,472,707 17.1
Barat Pontianak 415,312 661,316,433 3,656,003,717 1.5
Barat Sambas 131,157 86,914,751 1,740,263,388 5.5
Barat Sanggau 77,347 66,923,706 1,067,507,460 4.4
Barat Sekadau 984 265,870 16,765,949 17.2
Barat Singkawang 9,230 9,811,049 105,541,913 2.9
Barat Sintang 116,486 33,477,972 1,906,618,390 15.6
Selatan Balangan 6,815 1,847,927 116,041,451 17.2
Selatan Banjar 12,813 3,467,590 218,172,945 17.2
Selatan Banjar Baru 0 0 0 0.0
Selatan Banjarmasin 0 0 0 0.0
Selatan Barito Kuala 0 0 0 0.0
Selatan Hulu Sungai Selatan 207 58,866 3,528,691 16.4
Selatan Hulu Sungai Tengah 5,214 1,472,883 88,790,167 16.5
Selatan Hulu Sungai Utara 501 725,680 3,367,268 1.3
Selatan Kota Baru 46,527 12,062,719 703,116,006 15.9
Selatan Tabalong 14,237 8,052,661 206,860,735 7.0
Selatan Tanah Bumbu 27,021 7,044,636 423,104,124 16.4
Selatan Tanah Laut 3,394 837,152 46,524,918 15.2
Selatan Tapin 338 91,567 5,759,729 17.2
Tengah Barito Selatan 174,429 511,964,735 1,661,268,649 0.9
Tengah Barito Timur 66,816 40,399,246 863,818,624 5.8
Tengah Barito Utara 168,430 45,489,919 2,867,281,222 17.2
Tengah Gunung Mas 171,237 46,319,430 2,915,547,112 17.2
Tengah Kapuas 402,946 371,140,654 5,452,606,694 4.0
Tengah Katingan 681,162 1,138,360,301 7,753,491,244 1.9
Tengah Kotawaringin Barat 151,135 111,074,145 1,723,380,822 4.2
Tengah Kotawaringin Timur 104,629 118,923,499 1,082,458,047 2.5
Tengah Lamandau 32,849 8,869,320 559,305,052 17.2
Tengah Murung Raya 616,068 167,985,987 10,489,407,767 17.1
Tengah Palangka Raya 269,347 125,861,441 3,615,891,334 7.8
Tengah Pulang Pisau 414,334 1,331,511,003 4,067,708,294 0.8
Tengah Seruyan 91,772 36,162,247 1,190,209,135 9.0
Tengah Sukamara 12,907 7,454,154 151,801,780 5.6
Timur Balikpapan 2,513 525,377 22,841,125 11.9
Timur Berau 655,789 177,804,996 10,833,835,981 16.6
Timur Bontang 834 166,720 5,604,234 9.2
Timur Bulungan 374,166 227,931,365 5,519,536,612 6.6
Timur Kutai 170,698 46,997,683 2,364,768,983 13.7
Timur Kutai Barat 714,051 197,456,866 12,071,856,836 16.7
Timur Kutai Timur 233,473 63,434,505 3,845,834,780 16.6
Timur Malinau 780,019 218,421,293 13,280,908,766 16.6
Timur Nunukan 369,365 201,764,285 5,255,226,884 7.1
Timur Pasir 155,970 40,186,367 2,390,769,227 16.3
Timur Penajam Paser Utara 15,307 3,641,266 196,602,749 14.8
Timur Samarinda 0 0 0 0.0
Timur Tarakan 2,350 625,737 38,860,131 17.0
Notes:
  • (1) Includes biomass and peat carbon. [back]
  • (2) Net Present Value of forgone financial returns modeled over a 25-year timeframe. Unit NPV refers to the average cost of avoiding the emission of each Mg CO2-equivalent from each region. [back]

Table 2: Province-level

Province-level Environmental and Socioeconomic Implications
Province
Outcome Barat Selatan Tengah Timur Total
Land area (103 ha)
Included 2,182 117 3,358 3,475 9,131
Excluded 12,013 3,262 11,404 16,066 42,745
Total carbon1 (103 Mg)
Conserved 1,783,935 35,662 4,061,516 1,178,956 7,060,069
Not Conserved 3,126,178 523,730 4,879,671 3,608,314 12,137,893
Potential financial returns, NPV2 (106 $)
Forfeited 30,283 1,815 44,394 55,827 132,319
Retained 72,733 20,233 101,502 127,184 321,652
Unit opportunity cost of avoiding emissions2
($/Mg CO2-equivalent) 4.6 13.9 3.0 12.9 5.1
Notes:
  • (1) Includes biomass and peat carbon. [back]
  • (2) Net Present Value of forgone financial returns modeled over a 25-year timeframe. Unit NPV refers to the average cost of avoiding the emission of each Mg CO2-equivalent from each region. [back]
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